Last-Place Mets Crash the Braves' Party: Monday's Best MLB Betting Plays
Monday night baseball has the last-place Mets rolling into Truist Park to face the Braves — and before you write them off, remember: even bottom-feeders have value. All the data below comes from THE BAT X, the model built with MLB front-office techniques that factors in everything from park effects to pitch-framing.
Batter props to target
Carlos Cortes OVER 0.5 HR (+920): The model says only 14% chance, but the payout is so massive it still carries a $41.88 expected value. That's a lottery ticket worth a flyer.
Jorge Polanco OVER 0.5 RBI (+309): A 33% projection with a $35.50 EV. Polanco is right in the middle of the Mets' best scoring chances.
Jorge Polanco OVER 1.5 TB (+243): Another Polanco spot. 38% chance of hitting, good for $31.16 EV. Total bases are where he does the damage.
Nick Sogard UNDER 1.5 H+R+RBI (+104): The model gives this a 55% chance of cashing with $12.00 EV. The market might be expecting too much from Sogard.
Chandler Simpson UNDER 1.5 H+R+RBI (+114): Slight edge to the under at 51% with $10.06 EV. Not the sexiest bet, but value is value.
Pitcher props to fade or follow
Christian Scott UNDER 5.5 K (-126): The model has this cashing 65% of the time, making it a $21.17 EV play. Don't expect a strikeout party.
Freddy Peralta OVER 2.5 ER (-106): The model projects the long ball and the damage. 59% chance, $16.24 EV.
Sonny Gray UNDER 4.5 K (+105): 57% chance of staying under, $16.19 EV. The plus odds make it even sweeter.
Trevor Rogers UNDER 4.5 K (+127): 51% chance with $15.52 EV. The K total is just a bit too high.
Logan Henderson UNDER 5.5 K (-144): The strongest pitcher prop on the board: 67% probability and $18.31 EV.
Trends that pop
Braves run line (-1 @ -111): Atlanta has covered in six straight games at Truist Park, cashing +8.15 units (136% ROI).
Red Sox moneyline (-179): Boston has won five straight on the road (+6.30 units, 99% ROI).
Rangers team total UNDER 4.5 (-140): Texas has gone under in five straight road games (+5.10 units, 84% ROI).
Rays moneyline (-162): Tampa Bay is 6-0 on its current road trip (+6.20 units, 76% ROI).
Note: Past results don't guarantee future performance. These are trends, not certainties — but they're a sweet starting point for Monday's card.