Paul Skenes' Fastball Is Fading — And His Latest Early Hook Is Screaming Alarm Bells

PITTSBURGH — The radar gun doesn't lie, and right now it's telling a terrifying story for the Pirates. Paul Skenes, the reigning NL Cy Young winner and the closest thing baseball has to a human flamethrower, was yanked after just 65 pitches Tuesday night in a 2-0 loss to the Miami Marlins. The official line from manager Don Kelly? Not injury-related. The unofficial line from anyone watching? Something is off.

65 Pitches and Done

Skenes wasn't hurt, according to Kelly, who pulled the All-Star before the sixth inning because he “thought it gave us the best chance to win." And to his credit, Skenes didn't fight the decision. "He walked me through everything, and it made sense," Skenes said. "I wish I could have gone more, but it kinda is what it is."

The numbers tell the real story. Skenes allowed two runs — one earned — on five hits with one walk and four strikeouts. That strikeout total tied his second-lowest of the season in a start lasting at least five innings. And the pitch count? His lowest since a 64-pitch outing in April against the Rays, a game interrupted by a long weather delay.

The Velocity Problem Won't Go Away

Here's where it gets uncomfortable for Pittsburgh. Skenes' average fastball velocity this season is 96.8 mph — down from 98.1 mph last season and 98.8 mph in 2024. Tuesday in Miami, he hit a new low: 95.7 mph average on his fastball, and he didn't throw a single pitch over 97 mph. He also generated just a 12% whiff rate on 34 swings, the worst single-game mark of his career.

That's not the guy who showed up and made hitters look foolish for two years. That's a pitcher who looks like he's searching for something.

Volume? Routine? Or Something Bigger?

Skenes didn't directly blame the velocity dip, but he did hint at some "changes" in his routine and pointed to pitch volume as a possible culprit. "I know the innings total isn't super high right now," said Skenes, who has a 3.88 ERA in 134⅔ innings this season. "I think I've probably had more 30- to 35-pitch innings this year than I have probably in the last two years combined, so that doesn't help either. It's still volume, even if it doesn't show up on the innings total. That's probably part of it, too."

His recent track record backs up the concern. Skenes is now 3-4 over his last nine starts with a 5.79 ERA in that stretch. For a guy who was supposed to be the untouchable ace in Pittsburgh's rebuild, this is not the plan.

What's Next?

Kelly kept it blunt: "It's tough. Everybody is going through it. We need to keep grinding and find a way. It's frustrating for everybody. When you're going out there and battling for something, there is different pressure."

Skenes, for his part, isn't panicking. He's not arguing. He's just... accepting. "He's the manager, and I don't ever argue with it," Skenes said. "Like I said, I understand why."

But the Pirates' faithful have every right to be nervous. The flamethrower has lost his fire, the early exits are piling up, and the excuses are starting to sound thin. Paul Skenes is still on the mound — but the guy we used to know? He's getting harder to recognize with every start.