Jo Adell's HR Hunt Heads Up Thursday's Best MLB Betting Plays

Thursday's MLB slate is stacked with betting angles, but Jo Adell is the headliner. The Guardians slugger has gone yard in back-to-back games and now sits on the precipice of a three-game homer streak. THE BAT X has the numbers -- and the value plays -- for the full slate.

Top Batter Props

Jo Adell OVER 0.5 HR (+535) -- Projection: 19% HR probability. EV: $18.30. This is pure boom-or-bust, but the model loves the juice. Adell's raw power makes him a threat every time he steps in the box.

Jo Adell OVER 0.5 RBI (+185) -- Projection: 41%. EV: $15.51. If Adell goes deep, an RBI often follows. This is the safer way to ride the power surge.

Royce Lewis OVER 0.5 HR (+443) -- Projection: 19%. EV: $3.50. Lewis has the kind of pop that makes plus-money HR props interesting.

Joc Pederson UNDER 0.5 H (+144) -- Projection: 50%. EV: $22.20. The model says Pederson is in a tough spot to get a hit. A coin-flip at plus money with big EV.

Eugenio Suarez OVER 1.5 H+R+RBI (+120) -- Projection: 51%. EV: $13.10. Suarez remains a daily stat-sheet stuffer. Get him involved in everything.

Top Pitcher Props

Taj Bradley UNDER 5.5 K (+119) -- Projection: 53%. EV: $15.74. The strikeout total is high enough that the under has real value.

Jacob deGrom UNDER 1.5 ER (+110) -- Projection: 55%. EV: $15.69. When deGrom is on, he limits damage. The model sees fewer than two earned runs.

Roki Sasaki UNDER 2.5 ER (-165) -- Projection: 67%. EV: $11.52. Sasaki is a heavy favorite to keep the scoreboard clean. Lay the juice.

Max Scherzer OVER 4.5 K (+130) -- Projection: 45%. EV: $4.01. Scherzer's punchout number is low, and plus-money makes this a worthwhile shot.

Payton Tolle UNDER 5.5 K (-119) -- Projection: 56%. EV: $4.47. The model expects fewer strikeouts than the line suggests.

Team Trends

Nationals Team Total OVER -- Washington has gone over its team total in seven straight, good for +7.15 units and 85% ROI. Current line: 3.5 (-130).

Blue Jays Run Line -- Toronto has covered in six consecutive games, returning +6.65 units (90% ROI). Current line: +100.

Tigers F5 Team Total OVER -- Detroit has hit the over in the first five innings in six straight home games. +6.45 units, 91% ROI. Current line: 1.5 (-125).

Angels Game Total UNDER -- Los Angeles has gone under in six straight home games. +6.00 units, 90% ROI. Current line: 8 (-105).

Quick reminder: Expected Value (EV) is how much profit you'd expect on a $1 wager repeated 100 times. An $18.30 EV means a $100 total stake could bring back $18.30 in profit if the projection holds. And while trends are fun, they're not guarantees. THE BAT X accounts for player talent, park factors, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher framing and more -- the same kind of data MLB front offices use.