Breakout Szn: Quinn, Coronato and the Forwards Ready to Torch Your Fantasy League

Every fantasy draft has that one pick you reach for a round early because your gut says this is the year. Sometimes it's a hot preseason. Sometimes it's a shiny new linemate. Sometimes it's a highlight that's been living rent-free in your brain since April.

But vibes don't win leagues. Data does. So instead of guessing, the approach here was simple: pull every forward who actually broke out since 2009-10 and find what they had in common when it happened. Two things kept screaming: age and NHL games played.

The Breakout Blueprint

The bar is a 1.90 fantasy points per game average. That's the median FPPG across 1,700 individual top-100 forward seasons since 2009-10. From there, the filter gets ruthless: 299 forwards have made more than one top-100 appearance. Of those, 177 debuted in 2009-10 or later, giving complete game logs. And 124 eventually held a rolling 41-game FPPG average above 1.90 for at least 41 straight games.

When those 124 breakouts began, the average age was 24 years, 74 days. Most landed between 21 years, 303 days and 26 years, 88 days. Average experience? 250 games played, with the majority between 142 and 399.

That's the window. These are the forwards sitting inside it right now—not the guys who already banked a top-100 season and are known quantities. These are the ones the math says are due.

The Breakouts

Ridly Greig, C, Ottawa Senators (24.1 years old, 1.24 FPPG in 247 games): Not the flashiest name, but he's almost exactly the breakout age and experience. The Senators' depth chart should hand him a regular top-six role.

Jack Quinn, RW, Buffalo Sabres (25.0 years old, 1.27 FPPG in 260 games): Buffalo's scoring lines have a few configurations, but Quinn is firmly in the mix on the wing. There's even a path to top power-play time if he takes the next step.

Matt Coronato, RW, Calgary Flames (23.8 years old, 1.28 FPPG in 192 games): Has a door ever been this wide open for a young prospect? Calgary's teardown leaves no choice but to thrust Coronato into the limelight. Just watch the plus-minus if your league still uses it.

Bobby Brink, RW, Minnesota Wild (25.2 years old, 1.15 FPPG in 214 games): Brink was on his way to a 20-goal season with the Flyers in limited ice time before the trade to Minnesota cut into his chances. Now the Wild have flexibility for new faces to earn key roles, and Brink is in the mix.

Logan Stankoven, C, Carolina Hurricanes (23.5 years old, 1.27 FPPG in 183 games): The Stanley Cup playoffs were a coming-out party. He could have earned a Conn Smythe if Jordan Staal's goals weren't more timely. His line with Jackson Blake and Taylor Hall should hit the ground running.

Egor Chinakhov, RW, Pittsburgh Penguins (25.6 years old, 1.19 FPPG in 247 games): The breakout threshold is 1.90 FPPG. Chinakhov had 1.88 over the final 43 games after the trade to Pittsburgh. He essentially already broke out—the math just missed it on a technicality.

Mackie Samoskevich, LW, Seattle Kraken (23.8 years old, 1.23 FPPG in 156 games): Seattle spent a first-round pick to spring him from Florida's forward logjam, specifically to unleash his shooter's mentality on a scoring line, likely next to Shane Wright. He lived among league leaders in shots per 60 (64th among forwards with at least 100 minutes) on limited Panthers ice time. Give him minutes and the counting stats follow.

Mavrik Bourque, C, Nashville Predators (24.6 years old, 1.06 FPPG in 156 games): Nashville handed him $33 million and a projected second-line center job—a massive linemate upgrade for a guy who broke out for 20 goals buried in Dallas' bottom six.

Connor McMichael, C, St. Louis Blues (25.6 years old, 1.21 FPPG in 315 games): The Jordan Kyrou trade sent him to St. Louis, and his 26-goal, 57-point 2024-25 reminds you of the top-six ceiling. Just note the Blues also added Mason McTavish down the middle, so McMichael may shuffle between center and wing. The minutes stay top-six; the exact role won't.

Emil Heineman, LW, New York Islanders (24.8 years old, 1.29 FPPG in 148 games): Riding Bo Horvat's wing, Heineman busted out for 22 goals against just nine assists—a lopsided line that pegs him as a finisher, not a facilitator. If he holds that top-line spot, the goals are real. Treat him as a goals-and-hits multi-category piece and keep the points expectations in check.

Jackson Blake, RW, Carolina Hurricanes (23.1 years old, 1.25 FPPG in 162 games): Blake closed the playoffs on Carolina's most dangerous line, flanking Stankoven and Hall for a plus-30 across 19 games. That trio should open the year intact on a Cup contender, making the 23-year-old a cheap ticket into one of the league's better even-strength units.

Shane Wright, C, Seattle Kraken (22.7 years old, 1.31 FPPG in 169 games): We've been penciling in a Wright breakout since draft night, and the pedigree has cashed exactly zero of those checks so far. The difference this time isn't talent—it's that he's finally banked enough NHL games to sit right in the breakout window, with a top-six role that's his to lose.

Marco Kasper, C, Detroit Red Wings (22.4 years old, 1.25 FPPG in 159 games): Kasper's sophomore crash to nine goals on a 6.9 shooting percentage screams undervalued, especially now that he's healthy after gutting through a knee injury. The swing factor is Dylan Larkin: a trade vaults Kasper into a top-six role where the shooting luck corrects. If Larkin stays, he's more of a late-round dart.

Frank Nazar, C, Chicago Blackhawks (22.6 years old, 1.43 FPPG in 122 games): With Connor Bedard shelved into November after shoulder surgery, Nazar will be leaned on early. He buried only 15 of 138 shots last season, so positive regression is coming. The Bedard-less minutes are his runway to cash in before the role tightens up.

You Again?

A few names were on this list last season but remain in the wheelhouse. It's never too late.

Luke Evangelista, RW, New Jersey Devils (24.5 years old, 1.18 FPPG in 253 games): Surprising late offseason trade to New Jersey aside, Evangelista was making this list regardless. He has the skills and budding experience to break through as a fantasy-relevant winger. He's a lock for an opportunity alongside Nico Hischier or Jack Hughes, which is arguably more enticing than the same top-six chances in Nashville.

Kent Johnson, LW, Columbus Blue Jackets (23.9 years old, 1.14 FPPG in 274 games): Johnson already flashed the ceiling—57 points in 2024-25—before a shoulder injury and a career-worst 6.1 shooting percentage buried the follow-up. But a breakout absolutely requires him to beat out Valeri Nichushkin and/or Conor Garland for the top power-play unit.

Cole Perfetti, LW, Winnipeg Jets (24.7 years old, 1.28 FPPG in 290 games): We keep waiting on the power-play leap, and Perfetti keeps getting stranded on the wrong unit, with just six power-play points last season despite career-high man-advantage minutes. He's shown 50-point ability. If Winnipeg finally hands him a true PP1 look behind Kyle Connor and Mark Scheifele, the breakout follows. Until then, he's a late-round bet on that door opening.

Tyson Foerster, RW, Philadelphia Flyers (24.6 years old, 1.54 FPPG in 195 games): Foerster carries the highest floor in this tier thanks to an elite shot and a top-six role with Trevor Zegras plus PP1 time. A November surgery wiped out most of his 2025-26, but he'd banked 13 goals in 29 games before it. With a healthy runway for once, the 30-goal season people keep projecting becomes the base case.

Mason McTavish, C, St. Louis Blues (23.6 years old, 1.46 FPPG in 304 games): The former No. 3 pick finally gets a change of scenery in St. Louis, where a projected second-line center job behind Robert Thomas could unlock the offense that stalled in Anaheim. His 2025-26 (41 points in 75 games) underwhelmed, but he's only 23 with real pedigree.

That's the board. Now go draft like the math is on your side.