NFL Playoff Locks or Lambs? Four Teams That Will Crash the Dance
The NFL is back, and every one of the 32 franchises is drunk on playoff optimism. But let's be real: only 14 teams actually get in. Last season, six squads crashed the dance after missing out the year before — including both Super Bowl teams. The Seahawks went from 10-7 to a 14-3 championship run. The Patriots flipped a 4-13 disaster into a 14-3 Super Bowl appearance. Meanwhile, the Chiefs and Lions — both 15-2 in 2024 — watched the playoffs from their couches.
So who's next? Our analysts dove into the DraftKings futures board and found four teams with serious value to make the postseason. Odds are subject to change, so lock these in before the market catches up.
Dallas Cowboys to MAKE playoffs (+100)
Matt Bowen: The Cowboys can score — 26.6 PPG in 2025, tied for fifth-most. Dak Prescott slinging it to CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens? That's explosive. Javonte Williams adds downhill juice. But the real reason I'm in? New DC Christian Parker is importing Vic Fangio's scheme from Philly. Rookie safety Caleb Downs steps into the Cooper DeJean role, and Rashan Gary brings edge pressure. After surrendering a league-worst 30.1 PPG and 7.1 YPA, Dallas went all-in on defense in free agency and the draft. A manageable schedule gets this squad back in the tournament.
Jacksonville Jaguars to MAKE playoffs (+105)
Liz Loza: Liam Coen and Anthony Campanile pulled off a miracle in 2025, flipping a 4-13 dumpster fire into a 13-4 AFC South title. The offense ranked fifth in scoring (55 total TDs), and the defense grabbed 22 interceptions and 31 takeaways — second in the league. Instead of blowing it up, management kept the band together, added depth, and realigned the O-line. Oh, and two-way freak Travis Hunter is back. With a middle-of-the-pack FPI and the 11th-easiest schedule, Jacksonville is primed for another run.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers to MAKE playoffs (+130)
Eric Moody: The Bucs started 6-2 last season before injuries wrecked everything. An 8-9 finish snapped their four-year NFC South dynasty. Now? All five starting O-linemen return healthy. Emeka Egbuka, Chris Godwin Jr., and Bucky Irving give Baker Mayfield — who was playing at an MVP level early last year — a loaded arsenal. First-round pick Rueben Bain Jr. beefs up the pass rush. Staying healthy is the whole game, and Tampa Bay's roster says they're ready.
Tennessee Titans to MAKE playoffs (+340)
Pamela Maldonado: This is a long shot with upside, not a lock. But the environment around the Titans improved everywhere. The schedule softens. Cam Ward gets Brian Daboll as OC after surviving a brutal rookie year. The receiver room added Carnell Tate and Wan'Dale Robinson. Robert Saleh inherited a defense with new pass-rush talent, and the defensive slate looks favorable. If Ward makes a Year 2 leap, eight wins puts Tennessee in the AFC wild-card conversation. At +340, that's worth a sprinkle.
Odds courtesy of DraftKings. Play the No. 1 fantasy game for free at ESPN Fantasy Football.