The Rams Are the NFL's Superteam — History Says That's a Trap

The Los Angeles Rams walked into the 2026 offseason looking like the NFL's final boss. They traded for Trent McDuffie and signed Jaylen Watson, then pulled off the boldest move of them all — shipping Jared Verse and three picks to Cleveland for reigning Defensive Player of the Year Myles Garrett. Drafting Ty Simpson as Matthew Stafford's heir? That was just the appetizer. The main course is a Super Bowl-or-bust season.

Bookmakers have responded accordingly. The Rams sit at +550 to win Super Bowl LXI, and no other team is shorter than +1000. That translates to an implied 12.5% chance to win it all — a massive 5.1 percentage point gap over the Bills and Ravens. In Vegas terms, this is a superteam.

History isn't exactly on their side

Since 1990, there have been 15 preseason superteams with comparable gaps over the field. Only two of them finished the job: the 1994 49ers and the 2018 Patriots. That's it. Two out of fifteen.

Some of the others were agonizingly close. The 2017 Patriots lost to Nick Foles and the Eagles. The 2007 Patriots lost to the Giants after going 16-0. The 2001 Rams made it to the Super Bowl and lost to a Patriots team QB'd by a game manager named Tom Brady. The 1997 Packers got bulldozed by Terrell Davis and John Elway. And some superteams didn't even make it to the dance — the 2002 Rams and 2008 Patriots missed the playoffs entirely.

Here's the scariest part for L.A.: every single team since 1990 that was projected to be more dominant relative to the rest of the field than the 2026 Rams failed to win the Super Bowl.

That doesn't mean the Rams are doomed. The market's 12.5% number is basically a one-in-eight chance. Simulate the season eight times and the Rams win once. But it also means they're more likely than not to fall short — and the path to the Lombardi Trophy is littered with landmines.

What could sink the Rams?

Start with the schedule. The NFC West is a gauntlet. The Seahawks took down the Rams in the NFC title game last season, and they're not going anywhere. The 49ers loom, too. ESPN's FPI projects the Rams to face the second-toughest schedule in football.

Then there's the Stafford factor. He's coming off an MVP season at age 38. But quarterbacks in their late 30s can fall off a cliff — just ask Aaron Rodgers or Peyton Manning. Rich Gannon's rise and fall is a cautionary tale. Stafford could stay great, but nothing is guaranteed.

Injuries are another threat. Puka Nacua is irreplaceable, and the 2022 Rams — defending champs — collapsed to 5-12 when injuries ravaged the roster. That team knows exactly how quickly a superteam can crumble.

And don't forget special teams. The Rams ranked 26th in special teams DVOA in 2025, and a muffed punt may have cost them a trip to the Super Bowl. They fired the coordinator, changed the kicker and added Grant Stuard, but special teams is still a potential weak link.

Of course, there's also the simple reality of the playoffs. One bad game, one wild bounce, one opponent catching fire — and the whole "superteam" narrative is dead. Four of the 15 historical superteams made it to the Super Bowl and lost.

So can the 2026 Rams win it all? Absolutely. They have the talent, the coach and the quarterback. But history says "prohibitive favorite" is just another way of saying "huge target." If McVay and Stafford want that second ring, they'll have to do something only two superteams since 1990 have managed: actually finish the job.